August 18th, 2026
By Margaret Allen
PRESENTED BY Crowne Point Tax & Wealth Counsel
THIS WEEK
Don’t Wait for Jackson Hole
The Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium runs August 27–29. The official theme is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”
That is not what markets will be watching.
They will be watching Kevin Warsh.
It is his first Jackson Hole as Chair, and it lands less than three weeks before the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.
The setup is messy.
July payrolls fell by 23,000, unemployment rose to 4.1%, and expectations for a September hike dropped fast. Then CPI gave the doves something else to point to: prices rose just 0.1% for the month, headline inflation eased to 3.4%, and core inflation fell to 2.5%.
If you only look at core, the Fed looks close to done.
Your household budget tells a different story.
Energy is still up 14.7% over the past year. Gasoline is up 24.6%. WTI crude jumped roughly 21% in July amid Middle East tensions.
So the Fed has two inflation stories in front of it.
One says inflation is cooling.
The other is sitting on the gas-station sign you pass every week.
Jackson Hole is where Warsh gets to tell markets which one he takes more seriously.
But here is the part that matters for your money:
You do not need to wait for his speech to make decisions that already make sense today.
Three things worth checking before August 27:
Listen for what Warsh says about energy, not another recap of the jobs report. The weak payroll number is already out. The real question is whether higher fuel costs are treated as temporary noise or something that could keep inflation sticky.
Put idle cash to work while yields are still attractive. Some high-yield savings accounts are paying around 4.2%, while competitive CDs are above 4.25%. Keep money you may need liquid in savings; use a CD if you actually want to lock today’s rate.
Do not rebuild your debt plan around one Fed speech. Variable-rate debt is expensive today. It will still be expensive if the Fed holds, and worse if it hikes. Paying it down works either way.
Jackson Hole is a signal. September 16 is the decision. Your money plan should work in both scenarios.
ALSO THIS WEEK
Core Inflation Cooled. Your Gas Bill Didn’t.
This is why “inflation is getting better” can sound ridiculous at the kitchen table.
Core CPI rose 0.2% in July and 2.5% over the past year. That is moving closer to 2%, even though the Fed’s official inflation target is based on a different measure, PCE.
Good news for economists.
Less convincing when you are filling the tank.
Energy prices are still up 14.7% from a year ago. Gasoline is up 24.6%. Airline fares jumped 2.2% in July and are up 25.5% over the year. Food is up 3.0%. Medical care services rose 0.6% in one month.
That creates a simple problem.
The Fed looks at a broader set of inflation measures. Your household budget runs on the prices you actually pay.
A budget built around “inflation is 2.5%” can still come up short if the categories you use most are rising much faster.
Do not raise every budget line by the same percentage.
Reprice the categories that actually moved.
For most households right now, that means starting with fuel, travel, and medical costs.
QUICK HIT
The Refi Window Got More Expensive
Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.69% for the week ending August 6. The 15-year fixed was 6.01%.
That is not the refinance window a lot of homeowners were waiting for.
For most of the summer, the hope was simple: wait a little longer and rates will come down.
They went the other way.
The break-even math has not changed. The rate you plug into it has.
If your current mortgage rate is meaningfully above 6.69%, it is worth getting an actual quote and running the break-even math. Even a smaller rate drop can work on a large balance, while a bigger drop may not make sense if closing costs are high or you plan to move soon.
If your existing rate is below that, stop spending mental energy waiting for a refi that does not work yet.
The exercise takes fifteen minutes:
Pull your current rate.
Pull your remaining balance.
Get one real quote.
Calculate when the monthly savings recover the closing costs.
Then make a decision.
Waiting is not a strategy if you have never run the math.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Three Moves Before September 16
There are 29 days between this issue and the September Fed decision.
You do not need to spend those 29 days guessing what Warsh will say.
You need a plan that works whether the Fed hikes or holds.
First, make your cash earn something.
Competitive high-yield savings accounts are still paying around 4%, while some CDs offer more. Keep money you may need liquid in savings, and consider a CD if you want to lock today’s rate on cash you will not need during the term.
Second, price your variable debt as if rates go higher.
Ask what your payment looks like if the next move is another quarter point up. If that number creates a problem, the balance needs attention before the Fed meeting, not after it.
Third, settle the refinance question.
Run one quote against 6.69%. Find the break-even month. Either refinance or take it off your list for now.
Three dates matter:
August 27–29: Jackson Hole
September 4: August jobs report
September 16: Fed decision
Everything between them is commentary.
Put the cash to work. Price the debt. Run the refi.
Do those three things and you will care a lot less about guessing the next Fed headline correctly.
That’s the week. See you next issue.
Margaret Allen
Editor-in-Chief
Smrtt Money
P.S. Tax season doesn't wait — and neither do the rules. The sooner you have a strategy in place, the more you keep. Book your free 30-minute session here.