September 1st, 2026
By Margaret Allen
PRESENTED BY Crowne Point Tax & Wealth Counsel
THIS WEEK
The Fed Got Its Inflation Number. Now Jobs Are Next.
Everyone saw the CPI number.
But the Fed’s preferred inflation measure is PCE, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index.
Now we have July’s reading.
Headline PCE rose 0.2% for the month and 3.7% over the past year. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, also rose 0.2% for the month and held at 3.3% year over year.
That is the number the Fed watches more closely.
And it did not give policymakers much evidence that inflation is quickly returning to 2%.
Immediately after the report, futures markets put the probability of a September rate hike at roughly 44%, up from 36% before the release.
That does not mean a hike is coming.
It means September is still very much in play.
Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole appearance is now behind us. The next major pieces of hard data arrive before the Fed meets on September 15–16.
First comes the August jobs report on Friday, September 4. Then August CPI arrives September 11.
Here is the part that matters for your money:
You do not need to predict the Fed to make the obvious moves now.
Three things worth doing before September 16:
Watch Friday’s jobs report, not every reaction to it. A strong labor report gives the Fed less reason to ease up. A weaker one gives policymakers more room to wait.
Lock the cash you know you will not touch. High-yield savings accounts are still competitive, but the rate is variable. A CD lets you hold today’s rate for a defined term.
Stop pricing your debt off a rate cut nobody has promised. Variable-rate balances remain expensive whether the Fed holds or hikes. Paying them down still works in either scenario.
PCE is in. Jackson Hole is over. Jobs and CPI are next.
Then the Fed decides.
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ALSO THIS WEEK
Your 4% Savings Rate Isn’t Locked In
A high-yield savings account paying around 4% today does not promise to keep paying 4%.
That is the part savers tend to forget.
Savings rates are variable. Banks can change them as the interest-rate environment changes.
A CD is different.
Once you open one, the rate is generally locked for the term.
That difference barely matters while rates sit still. It matters a lot when the Fed may be approaching another move.
And right now, the direction is not settled.
The Fed could hold in September. A hike is still on the table. Eventually, rates could move lower again.
You do not need to guess which comes first.
Split the decision instead.
Keep the cash you may actually need in a high-yield savings account. If you have money you know you will not touch for six or twelve months, compare the return from locking it in.
The point is not that 4% disappears on September 16.
The point is that today’s savings rate is not a contract.
Know which dollars need flexibility and which ones do not.
QUICK HIT
Mortgage Rates Are Worth Rechecking
Freddie Mac’s August 20 survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.65%, while the 15-year fixed averaged 5.95%.
Those are not cheap borrowing costs.
But if your current mortgage rate sits meaningfully above that range, they are close enough to justify running the numbers again.
Do not decide based on the headline rate alone.
A smaller drop can still work on a large balance. A bigger drop can still fail if closing costs are high or you expect to move soon.
The exercise takes fifteen minutes:
Pull your current rate.
Pull your remaining balance.
Get one real refinance quote.
Calculate when the monthly savings recover the closing costs.
Then make a decision.
If your current rate is already below what lenders are offering, take refinancing off your mental list for now.
If it is well above the market, stop wondering and get the quote.
You do not need rates to collapse. You need the math to work.
THE BOTTOM LINE
What Matters Now
By the time you’re reading this, the PCE report is out and Warsh has already spoken at Jackson Hole.
Those were the setup. Now the calendar gets simpler.
Friday, September 4: August jobs report.
That is the next number with a real chance to move the September conversation. A softer labor market gives the Fed more room. A stronger report makes the decision harder.
Friday, September 11: August CPI.
This is the final major inflation read before the Fed meets, and another chance for the September outlook to move.
Wednesday, September 16: Fed decision.
That is the date that actually changes borrowing costs, savings rates, and the assumptions behind your next move.
Until then, the useful work is already in front of you:
Keep cash you may need liquid.
Lock rates on cash you know you won’t touch.
Pay down expensive variable-rate debt.
Run the refinance math with a real quote, not a headline.
The next two weeks will produce plenty of commentary. You don’t need to react to all of it.
Know your numbers before September 16, and let the Fed meeting confirm or challenge the plan you already made.
That’s the week. See you next issue.
Margaret Allen
Editor-in-Chief
Smrtt Money
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